Third Annual Dugout Central Challenge — AL Predictions
A couple of weeks ago, Dugout Central staff and readers were challenged to predict win totals for all thirty MLB teams. A total of six entries were received. In this article the predictions for the AL are presented; for details about the contest rules, see the original article. There are two contests again this year, one for Average Win Difference and one for Root Mean Square Difference.
Defending champions Patrick Greco and I return, along with John Bowen, Chuck Johnson and Jon Ellis (Seven). There is one rookie contestant, Bob Owens.
Here are the predictions, by division, in alphabetical order. The Vegas Over/Under line, taken from BookMaker, is also shown.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||72||92||90||92||85|
In the AL East the Red Sox and Yankees are favored by almost everyone – Jon had the
Rays beating out the Yankees, and Bob predicted a Yankees implosion. The biggest disagreement is therefore for the Yankees. Predictions for Boston are the most uniform, with only a 9 game spread.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||92||65||73||68||91|
Minnesota is favored by all but one to win the AL Central, although the White Sox are getting a fair amount of respect, and they were Jon’s choice to win the AL central. There is general agreement that the Indians and Royals will be bad, with the only uncertainty being how bad.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||84||87||65||85|
The A’s and Rangers are favored by our group to be at the top of the AL West, with the group roughly split down the middle on who ends up winning the division — only Chuck does not see Oakland over .500. One of last year’s most disappointing teams, Seattle, convinced everyone that their futility will continue.
Although contestants were not asked explicitly to choose a wild card team, using the win totals we can see that Boston was the close favorite to win the AL wild card, although Tampa Bay, Chicago and the Yankees also were predicted by at least one person.
As a group, we were most optimistic about Minnesota, a full 4.7 games above the Vegas line, while we were the most pessimistic about Cleveland, predicting exactly 4 games less than the Vegas line. Maybe there’s a correlation there.
The NL predictions will be presented Tuesday.