Third Annual Dugout Central Challenge — NL Predictions
A couple of weeks ago, Dugout Central staff and readers were challenged to predict win totals for all thirty MLB teams. A total of six entries were received. In this article the predictions for the NL presented; the AL predictions were given yesterday. For details about the contest rules, see the original article.
Here are the predictions, by division, in alphabetical order. The Over/Under win totals from BookMaker are also shown.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||92||82||81||95||70|
In the NL East the Phillies are favored by everyone except for Bob and I, who chose Atlanta. The Nationals are expected to be bad by everyone.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||80||88||75||84||58||82|
Cincinnati is the overwhelming favorite to repeat in the NL Central, except for Bob, who thinks they will have a big setback and be replaced by Milwaukee. Once again Houston and Pittsburgh are expected to trail the field, although by varying degrees.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||66||85||83||78||90|
The Giants are favored unanimously to repeat in the NL West again – the only one of six division winners we completely agreed on. Arizona is the clear favorite to claim the cellar. I am the only one to have the Padres over .500 again.
Wild card votes were all over the map, with St. Louis, Colorado, Los Angeles, Florida, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Philadelphia all getting a vote or part of a vote — there were some wild card ties, and the contestants were not asked explicitly to choose a wild card team.
Bob Owens had the most extreme pick, predicting Cincinnati to win only 73 games, 12 games below any other prediction.
As a group we predicted the Giants to win 5.2 games more than the Vegas line, our most optimistic choice. We were most pessimistic on the Cubs and Nats, 5.0 and 4.7 below the Vegas line, respectively.
Updates will be provided periodically throughout the year using winning percentages, so there’s nowhere to hide, and may the best prognosticator win!