Dugout Central Challenge Update
Right before the season started, Dugout Central readers and staff were challenged to predict the number of wins for each of the thirty MLB teams. The predictions were given in previous articles for the AL (here) and NL (here). Now that we are five weeks into the season, let’s take a look at the current standings.
This year there are two different contests – one uses average win difference (AWD) and the other root mean square difference (RMSD). The difference scores are projected to the end of the season in two ways – extrapolate the current team wins to 162 games or prorate our 162-game predictions to the current number of games. One method overstates the error, while the other understates it. By taking the geometric average (square root of the product) of the two methods those effects tend to cancel out. The standings below use this combined score. In practice, the two projection methods give almost identical results for the ordering, even though numerically they are far off from each other and the final scores.
The projected scores for the two contests are shown in the following table, ordered by the AWD score. All games through May 8 are included.
|Jon Ellis (Seven)||5.34||6.99|
Chuck currently leads by both the AWD and RMSD accounting – John is second in AWD and I’m second in RMSD. Of course, it’s still early and the standings are very volatile from day to day – just within the last two weeks, Chuck’s lead has been cut in half.
The other predictions in the table belong to various computer picks and algorithmic formulas. Average is the average of our six picks for each team. The 2010 and 2010 Pythagorean use last year’s wins and Pythagorean wins, respectively. 81 Wins is just like it sounds – it predicts 81 wins for each team. Sadly, only Chuck is doing better than 81 Wins, thanks in part to an AL Central that is so far completely upside-down compared to expectations. The Over/Under predictions are from the preseason Vegas line, and as usual they are near the top.
The Diamond Mind predictions are from the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog – they use the Diamond Mind simulations of hundreds of thousands seasons to get average win totals. For player inputs they used player projections from Bill James, CAIRO, Marcel, Oliver and PECOTA. For a detailed description of their method and the win predictions, click here. The DM-CAIRO, DM-Marcel and DM-Bill James are the results of using just those particular player projections, respectively. Also shown are predictions from the Baseball Prospectus (here) and The Hardball Times. These use the PECOTA and Oliver player projections, respectively. Overall the computer predictions are doing well, except for The Hardball Times.