Jeter’s Final Push – Can He Reach 3100 by the end of the year?

by ThomasWayne

Over the years I’ve never hidden the fact that I’m a big Derek Jeter fan. Over the years myself and others like me have had to put up with the loud and proud Jeter Haters out there who will spew out alternative stat after alternative stat that (in their minds) validates their assumption that Jeter is not a great player, or at the very least that he his highly overrated and not worthy of all the praise that has been heaped upon him over the years.  They will tell you that he is (and never was) worth a damn defensively and that he only has great offensive numbers because he’s played with great players his whole career and that he was just another player on a team filled with great players.

To that I say – no one gets 5 rings, 3000 hits, a first ballot Hall of Fame pass and millions of fans worldwide by being “just another player”.

Regardless, last year was a big year for the Jeter Haters.  Most of the Captains key numbers were down across the board and they had no problem calling this the beginning of the end of the Yankee shortstop.

And when 2011 started it looked like they may be right.  A dismal first three months had him batting under .260  with little run scoring production of any kind. But a funny thing happened on the way to a glorious  Hater victory over the dreaded future Hall of Famer – he started hitting like – well – Derek Jeter.

From the first of July Jeter has batted .343 with 34 runs batted in and 74 hits in 52 games. Compare that to his first 62 games (.260 average, 20 RBI and 68 hits). Simply put – he is on fire.

His 162 game average in the second half of the season is nothing short of fantastic  – on pace for 106 runs driven in, 122 runs scored and 231 hits. All this from a guy who was declared washed up on June 30th buy his detractors as well as the national media – the so-called experts.

Don’t you love it when the so-called experts are just flat out wrong?

With this hit barrage Jeter has propelled himself not only past his 3000th hit but he’s pushing the 3100 mark. Like Ichiro’s chase for 200 hits, Jeter has an outside chance of reaching 3100 before the start of the 2012 season.

Coming into tonights play he has 3068 hits – 32 short of 3100. The Yankees have 22 games left to play.  Getting 32 base knocks in 22 games  is not out of the realm of possibility for the Captain. 

So in the spirit of “can Ichiro get 46 hits in 28 games” I ask you this – Can Jeter get 32 in 22 games and enter 2012 with 3100?

Let the debating (and in some cases hating) begin.

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48 Responses to “Jeter’s Final Push – Can He Reach 3100 by the end of the year?”

  1. Jim Says:

    No, but he’ll be close. If he averages four at bats per game (he’s averaged 4.2 this year) in the remaining 22 he’ll need to hit .364 or better to reach 32.

    BTW a hater could agree that he will and a fan could say that he won’t.

  2. JohnBowen Says:

    I’m gonna file this one under “unlikely” … but does it really matter? Jeter’s gonna be around for at least a couple more years and it’s not like failing to get to 3100 career hits by season’s end will mean the same as failing to continue a streak of 10 200-hit seasons, as Ichiro’s on the verge of doing.

  3. Chuck Says:

    Any significance in Jeter’s recent hot streak coincided with the cutting loose of the ball and chain?

    As far as the hits go…no, he won’t get there.

    I expect Ramiro Pena to get some playing time now that he’s off the DL, and Nunez too, as the Yanks begin to formulate their postseason roster, with Jeter probably getting some more time off than normal.

  4. Raul Says:

    I think he’ll be a little short.

    He’s got 2 more years. So what? Another 300-320 hits?
    He’s going to finish in the Top 10 in Career Hits.
    Whatever you want to criticize about defense…TOP TEN in Career Hits.

    That’s beyond impressive.

  5. JohnBowen Says:

    What was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel in Cleveland has not panned out that way…

    Tigers are up 7-6 against the Indians. Verlander gave up 4 in 6 with Justin Masterson giving up 5 (4 earned) in 6…Verlander is currently in line for his 22nd win despite a less than Verlander-esque performance.

  6. Chuck Says:

    Isn’t every game technically a pitcher’s duel?

  7. JohnBowen Says:

    Fair enough.

    A duel of…good/great pitchers.

    Masterson has been pretty under-the-radar this year. Today he pitched his 200th inning and his ERA is hovering around 3.

  8. Raul Says:

    Seems to me Verlander pitched alright.

    6 innings
    3 hits
    2 walks
    8 strikeouts

    The 4 runs came on 2 homers by Shelley Duncan.

  9. JohnBowen Says:

    Haha…surrendering two HR to Shelley Duncan is a good example of being “less than Verlander-esque”

  10. JohnBowen Says:

    But I see your point…4 ER is about the worst you could possibly expect out of a line like the one you just gave.

    And if the worst you’re doing is giving up 4…your team at least has a shot of winning.

  11. JohnBowen Says:

    Valverde going for the save now…Alex Avila scored an insurance run on an RBI-triple by (I think) Ramon Santiago).

    Lonnie Chisenhall, 2 outs, down by 2.

  12. Raul Says:

    LOL

    Well Shelley Duncan is a power threat.
    It’s not like giving up a home run to Francisco Cervelli.

  13. JohnBowen Says:

    Nevermind, insurance triple was from Don Kelly, who looks nothing like Santiago.

  14. Chuck Says:

    Duncan had a two homer game on Sunday vs. KC

  15. JohnBowen Says:

    So half of his HR all year have been in the last 4 days.

  16. Raul Says:

    Isn’t that like Bob Uecker?

    He’d have 10 RBI all season and he tried to get them all in the last month.

    Or some joke like that, lol…

  17. John Says:

    One of Uecker’s like 6 career HR came off Sandy Koufax.

    Saw an interesting point about the NL Cy Young race…Halladay has just 6 starts against winning teams. That’s half as many as Lee; among contenders, Kershaw leads the way with 15.

  18. Chuck Says:

    ” Kershaw leads the way with 15.”

    Kind of what happens when you suck..most of your starts are against teams better than you, and vice versa.

  19. Chuck Says:

    “Halladay has just 6 starts against winning teams”

    I count nine.

  20. Chuck Says:

    Orioles just went ahead of the Yanks 5-4 in the top of the 11th.

    Between them, Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis are 1-12 with nine strikeouts.

  21. Raul Says:

    But it’s ok because in the 2 times a week that they make solid contact, ball go far.

  22. Chuck Says:

    Some guy named Guillermo Moscoso from Oakland just lost a no hitter with two outs in the eighth inning against the Royals.

  23. JohnBowen Says:

    @19

    Atlanta (2), Arizona, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Texas

    But, he does have 2 starts each against New York and Cincy, not to mention a start each against Toronto and LA.

    All of those are basically .500 teams who are 2-3 below.

    But yeah, Clifton Phipher, despite being on the same team, has had a way tougher slate – Arizona (2), Atlanta (4), Boston, Milwaukee, St. Louis (2), and Texas. The other above .500 team is San Fran (not much of a challenge, from a pitching standpoint). Lee also has 2 against New York and Cincy, as well as 2 against LA and 1 against Toronto, effectively cancelling out the close-to-.500 opponents Halladay had.

  24. JohnBowen Says:

    Actually, I just did the breakdown, cancelling out common opponents between Roy and Cliff:

    Lee:

    ARI
    ATL (2)
    BOS
    LAD
    SFG
    STL

    Halladay:

    COL
    FLA
    OAK
    PIT
    SDP
    WAS (2)

  25. Chuck Says:

    Fuck me

    “@19″

    May 10th vs Florida
    May 15th vs Atlanta
    May 20th vs Texas
    May 25th vs Cincinnati
    June 21st vs St Louis
    July 8th vs Atlanta
    July 29th vs Pittsburgh
    August 16th vs Arizona
    August 30th vs Cincinnati.

    How many is that, John?

  26. Chuck Says:

    Rockies sending Drew Pomeranz to AFL, bringing total of 2011 first rounders to five (Joe Panik, Mike Mahtook, Danny Hultzen, Jed Bradley).

    Pomeranz makes first ML start on Sunday.

  27. Chuck Says:

    BA Minor League Player of the Year: Mike Trout

    USA Today Minor League Player of the Year: Paul Goldschmidt.

  28. Raul Says:

    ESPN did a poll of who would win awards.

    AL Cy Young Award

    82% – Justin Verlander
    12% – CC Sabathia
    2% – Josh Beckett
    2% – Jered Weaver
    1% – James Shields
    0% – Justin Masterson

    *Note this only adds up to 99%

    National League Cy Young Award

    39% – Clayton Kershaw
    29% – Cliff Lee
    18% – Ian Kennedy
    13% – Roy Halladay
    1% – Cole Hamels

    AL MVP

    36% – Curtis Granderson
    35% – Justin Verlander
    13% – Jose Bautista
    9% – Adrian Gonzalez
    6% – Jacoby Ellsbury
    1% – Dustin Pedroia

    NL MVP

    34% – Ryan Braun
    32% – Justin Upton
    23% – Matt Kemp
    5% – Prince Fielder
    3% – Joey Votto
    2% – Troy Tulowitzki

    *Note this only adds up to 99%

    AL ROY

    37% – Mark Trumbo
    29% – Ivan Nova
    12% – Jeremy Hellickson
    8% – Michael Pineda
    7% – Dustin Ackley
    7% – Alexi Ogando

    NL ROY

    50% – Craig Kimbrel
    33% – Vance Worley
    6% – Freddie Freeman
    6% – Josh Collmenter
    4% – Danny Espinosa
    1% – Wilson Ramos

  29. JohnBowen Says:

    @25, I think the author was referring to winning teams as of right now, not teams that had winning records as of their starts. Meaning Cincy, Pittsburgh, and Florida don’t count.

  30. JohnBowen Says:

    Milwaukee and St. Louis are squaring off – duel of underachieving Cy Young winners.

  31. JohnBowen Says:

    Rafael Furcal has 7 HR all year.

    4 are against Milwaukee.

  32. Raul Says:

    I remember like 10-15 years ago the Royals had a guy…I think it was Geronimo Gil or something like that. He killed the Yankees.

  33. Raul Says:

    nope that wasn’t him.

    lemme see if i can find him

  34. Raul Says:

    It was Geronimo Berroa in 1995.

    He hit 6 homers against the Yankees that year.
    And he never played for the Royals. My bad.

  35. JohnBowen Says:

    I got a Geronimo Berroa baseball card in like 1997ish.

    I thought it was weird that I had never heard of this guy before. 30 doubles, 30 HR, 100 R/100 RBI in 1996.

    Then, as I started accumulating more cards, I realized that everyone and their mom was doing that stuff in 1996.

    As a frame of reference, Berroa had an .876 OPS in 1996, which translated to a 117 OPS+.

    Alex Gordon is currently sitting at .873 and 142. I’m guessing the park factors there are closish.

  36. Raul Says:

    I don’t know where my baseball cards are.
    Probably back in NY.

    Berroa had some power.
    Gordon is having a hell of a season. Good for him.

  37. Chuck Says:

    “@25, I think the author was referring to winning teams as of right now”

    Kinda dumb, don’t you think?

  38. Raul Says:

    There really are no races to watch right now.
    Just Texas and LA.

  39. John Says:

    @37, not particularly.

    With the exception of major injuries, the truest measure of a team’s ability is how they do over a full year, not how they’ve done in 20 or 30 games to kick off the year.

    The 2011 Marlins were not a good baseball team. The fact that they had a good April doesn’t change that.

  40. Cameron Says:

    Never mention Berroa and my team in the same sentence. That’s gonna bring back flashbacks…

  41. JohnBowen Says:

    Forgot to mention this yesterday…

    yesterday, Placido Polanco hit a home run over his own stat line along the left-field – specifically over his slugging percentage, which was .337.

  42. Cameron Says:

    That’s just ironic on so many levels.

  43. Raul Says:

    Jeter has 3,073 hits.
    That leaves him with 27 hits to get in the Yankees’ final 17 games.

  44. Bob Says:

    The Yankees are 7-0 when both Jeter and ARod sit.

  45. Raul Says:

    The Red Sox are 0-Life whenever Dan Shaughnessy opens his stupid mouth.

  46. Bob Says:

    While that is true, I learned that stat from Joel Sherman in the Post. He was praising the bench of the Yankees, especially Chavez and Nunez.

  47. Raul Says:

    Happy 70th birthday, Mickey Lolich.

    In 1971, you started 45 games, completed 29 of them and pitched 376 innings with a 2.92 ERA.

    You were 25-14 but finished 2nd in the Cy Young vote behind Vida Blue.

  48. Raul Says:

    Excuse me.
    He is 71.

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